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Social autumn in Germany was already known to be heated, especially in the automotive sector. But no one imagined it would be so red-hot. "It seems that bosses no longer want to assume their collaboration with trade unions. Announcements and unilateral denunciations of agreements by company management are coming one after another. There is an increasing questioning of co-management in the workplace by employers and the right," says Nicole Mayer-Ahuja, who teaches labor sociology at the University of Göttingen.

In Volkswagen, the news broke last week. On Wednesday, September 30, employee representatives and IG Metall union officials attended an "evaluation meeting." The initial agenda focused on the progress of the two latest austerity programs, which plan to eliminate at least 100,000 jobs, billions of euros in cuts, but also the closure of several factories, up to four. What was served to them sounded like a slap in the face.

Arne Meiswinkel, Volkswagen's Human Resources director, cast doubt on promised investments in new models. He called for more cuts and announced the unilateral termination of ten of the thirteen collective agreements that regulate the work of the 130,000 employees and female employees of the brand. What the executive qualifies as "opening up a negotiation space" should lead to lower wages, an extension of working hours, and a reduction in vacation time, among other things.

"It is a stab in the back for the workforce and, once again, a blatant attempt to pick workers' pockets. We will not accept it," Thorsten Gröger, president of the IG Metall regional section in Lower Saxony, has reacted. Daniela Cavallo, chairwoman of Volkswagen's works council, expects, of course, "a strong confrontation by the end of the year."

Mercedes is experiencing a similar situation. At the beginning of September, the star brand announced to employee representatives that it wanted to move from 35 to 40 hours per week without salary compensation. If we exclude bonuses, that represents a 20% reduction in wages. The group believes it will not be able to maintain its production in Germany if wage costs do not decrease. Its benchmark is its Kecskemét factory in Hungary, whose production costs would be 70% lower than those in Germany.

A reactionary employer agenda

Legally, such a request should have been included on the agenda of the major autumn wage negotiations, which begin on October 7. But in this case too, social dialogue has been broken: "Management communicates through the press and no longer through works councils," Nicole Mayer-Ahuja points out.

Companies and the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA) present their strategy as a matter of survival. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the automotive industry employed 834,000 workers and female employees in 2019, compared to the 691,000 forecast for the end of 2025. According to a recent study by Roland Berger consulting firm for the magazine Manager Magazin, the sector should lose at least another 200,000 jobs in the next five years.

"The ongoing restructuring is not yet the end of the story," explains Felix Mogge, co-author of the study, which analyzes in detail the case of Volkswagen. Before the covid-19 pandemic, the company was able to produce 15 million cars a year, with record sales of 11 million vehicles in 2019. Today, management's annual target is only 8 million units, in a context of rising energy and material prices, and lower added value for electric vehicles.

The study also mentions the average utilization rate of German factories: around 60% in 2025, well below the profitability threshold, estimated at 75%.

The German Employers' Federation has launched a frontal attack on works councils.

"IG Metall has long based its strategy on the hope of returning to classic negotiations within existing regulatory frameworks. All this is based on the idea that co-management and negotiations allow for better results than conflict and confrontation," Nicole Mayer-Ahuja analyzes. But the German model of social collaboration is working less and less, and cases are multiplying of companies like Tesla or SAP, which openly fight against the presence of trade unions or the election of a works council.

Precisely, at the beginning of September, the German Federation of Employers (BDA) launched a frontal attack on works councils. In a document from the organization, they are presented as too bureaucratic, slow, and detrimental to innovation. "Germany must win in speed and efficiency, and reduce its bureaucracy," Rainer Dulger, president of the BDA, asserts. Thus, the organization proposes cutting back the powers of worker representatives.

Among the proposed measures are reducing negotiation deadlines, decreasing the size and budget of these bodies, as well as limiting their right to express opinions on a myriad of topics, such as environmental issues, artificial intelligence, occupational health, or the organization of working hours. The cherry on top for employers: the BDA wants employers to be able to take provisional unilateral measures in case of emergency.

The danger of far-right unionism

These ultra-liberal and reactionary positions echo in conservative circles, but also, and above all, within the AfD. It is true that the far-right party does not miss an opportunity to proclaim itself workers' party since post-election polls showed that a non-negligible part of the working world votes for it. However, its Program for Germany does not mention the words trade union or co-management even once.

Federal deputy Hans-Jürgen Goßner, an AfD expert on the subject, believes that German trade unions are too powerful, too political, and too left-wing. He is in favor of moderate union action, within the company and in defense of German workers and employees.

The rise of the AfD in the world of work is still difficult to define. But major unions are already on alert.

In the last national elections for delegates and delegatees of personnel, held in March, the lists of free trade unions, but also Zentrum, an association close to the AfD, only won a tiny fraction of the seats, compared to IG Metall, which took 85% of the seats. Nevertheless, Zentrum, an organization created in 2009 by Oliver Hilburger, a Mercedes mechanic and former guitarist of the far-right rock group Noie Werte, is present in about ten car factories of Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, or even Volkswagen.

Faithful to AfD positions, Zentrum advocates abandoning electric mobility and returning to cheap Russian fossil energies to save the German automotive sector: "The dominance of DGB trade unions (the main trade union confederation in Germany), which has lasted for decades, has not brought more participation, but rather caused, in many places, stagnation, adjustments, and job cuts," can also be read in an article published on the association's website.

Due to lack of members, Zentrum does not have the status of a trade union and is not authorized to negotiate collective agreements. But the fear of a change in trend is great among established unions. In an internal letter cited by the blog Business Insider, Mercedes delegates and delegatees near Stuttgart ask for more combativeness and fewer concessions to the union leadership.

Sociologist Nicole Mayer-Ahuja says that the situation and strategy of the AfD in the world of work are still unclear: "In a car company, where many immigrant workers are also colleagues, the lines of conflict between workers and management are clear. However, the AfD is usually on the side of the bosses and advocates for small corporate unions at the company level. That is why, logically, people vote more for IG Metall, which has more bargaining power."

However, she adds that those same people, when they leave the factory, are perfectly capable of voting for the AfD and supporting the concept of remigration of foreign men and women: "That is why it is fundamental for unions to show themselves combative and clearly defend their members in the upcoming negotiations, so that the tide does not turn in favor of far-right unionism."

In northern Germany, the coastal district of IG Metall has drawn up a real fighting document to challenge the more timid sectors of the union. "We want a national reorientation of our efforts and resources to increase our confrontation strength against management and the risk of far-right extremism", explains district spokesperson Dominick Lauck. "To do this, we want our presence to exceed 50% (of workers) in as many companies as possible".

The union constituency covers the federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD has just secured 38% of the votes. Further south, in the state of Saxony, at the Volkswagen plant in Zwickau (which, despite its ultra-modern production lines, is listed among factories in a state of uncertainty), the risks of a change of course are no less significant. In the event of closure, the alternatives being considered for this plant, which employs eight thousand people and is the engine of the region, are a large recycling center or its acquisition by a Chinese manufacturer.

Thomas Schnee is a correspondent in Berlin covering political, social and economic issues with special attention to business and the labor market in Germany.

Translation: viento sur.